Thames Valley Berkshire LEP Recovery and Renewal Roundtables - 21 September
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A number of delegates had queries on the source of GVA data. Please find below further information.
The link to the source of the information (from the Centre for Progressive Policy) is as follows:
This research used a release by the OBR in which it forecast a Q2 2020 hit of -35% to the UK economy.
The OBR reports substantiated this forecast with an underpinning sectoral analysis (on page 7) of likely output losses in Q2 from the pandemic within the following report:
The Centre for Progressive Policy then used this sectoral analysis to model the likely impacts on each LA, based on their legacy sectoral GVA profile, and showed the potential hit to each set in context of the -35% forecast for the UK.
"We have applied this methodology to every local authority district in the UK, weighting the average sectoral hit by the distribution of each local authority’s GVA by sector."
Analysis of the UK Output figures for Q2 2020 show that the UK performed better than the OBR forecast (-20.4% rather than -35%). As Local Authority level figures are not published on a monthly / quarterly basis, however, the early April forecasts were included to show how - in context of the underpinning sectoral forecasts for the UK - each LA would likely fare. As the first statement on slide on the CEO presentation (slide 7) highlights, "with the exception of Reading, all other LAs in Berkshire were forecast, in April, to be more significantly impacted, from a GVA perspective, that the UK average". As such, the forecasts provide a potentially useful indicator (set in context of the -20.4% Q2 2020 actual performance) of the local impacts of the pandemic.